The 2014 Mets Prospect List

5 Nov

I wrote about 20,000 words over at Amazin’ Avenue about the Mets prospects I saw this season, so I wasn’t going to do a proper Mets prospect list. Now I am. People like lists. We’ll be brief.

If I’ve written about the prospect in question at AA, the link is in their name.

30. Champ Stuart, OF

If he figures out how to hit .250, will have a major league career with the speed/defense in CF. Has an idea what he is doing up there too, even if the swing won’t cooperate at this point in time.

29. Wilfredo Tovar, SS

*shrugs*

28. Ivan Wilson, OF

Had a lousy GCL season, but I can’t help but be intrigued. Tough to rank higher without seeing him live, but I might be too low.

27. Chris Flexen, RHP

26. Aderlin Rodriguez, 1b/3b

Two prospects with very little in common.

25. Jared King, OF

Voted most likely to have a Plawecki-type breakout in 2014. Could be 10-15 spots higher on the 2015 list easily. Also might end up a tweener, but them’s the breaks.

24. Logan Verrett, RHP

I hate comps: Poor man’s Luke Gregerson?

23. Jeff Walters, RHP

I think he needs to grow a mustache to complete the transformation from org dude starter to major league reliever. Maybe the Robb Nen?

22. Wuilmer Becerra, OF

I hope he works out, if only so all of Canada gets pissed at #Mort again three years from now when he writes a positive report on him.

21. Robert Gsellman, RHP

20. Casey Meisner, RHP

If I’m going to miss badly on two guys on this list, it’s probably these two. Don’t care.

19. Vic Black, RHP

Not bad for one month of Marlon Byrd, though that glove tap during his motion will probably drive me insane.

18. Cory Mazzoni, RHP

Needs to stop getting hurt every time I am supposed to catch him. Reports this year were more promising, and he started to miss bats, but didn’t do much to move the needle on that reliever projection.

17. Domingo Tapia, RHP

I want to believe.

16. Luis Cessa, RHP

Okay, maybe this is the guy I will miss the worst on. Still don’t care.

15. Amed German Rosario, SS

14. Gavin Cecchini, SS

I’ve said (written) my piece on these two. Hope they outperform my projections. Also hope they look like they will next time I see them. It’s a process for everybody.

13. Jacob deGrom, RHP

Not thrilled that they switched him to a curve. It’s quite short at the moment, if more consistent overall than the slider. Holding steady, basically.

12. Kevin Plawecki, C

I am guessing most will have Plawecki in their top ten. That’s fine. Not a huge spread between 7-13 on my list anyway. I do think the arm will always be a limiting factor, and Mets fans probably think he will walk in the majors more than he will. Perfectly cromulent prospect though.

11. Michael Fulmer, RHP

A lost season for Fulmer, but there is still an argument for keeping him in the Top 10. His stuff is better than Ynoa’s, and he’s younger than Matz, but those injuries aren’t going to make that nagging voice that says he’s a reliever go away anytime soon.

10. Gabriel Ynoa, RHP

9. Steven Matz, LHP

I have my misgvings about Matz’s ultimate projection, but I don’t see how you can keep a lefty that touches 95 out of the top 10 in this system. I like Ynoa more than anybody else, and your guys are going to be your guys. The slider will have to get better, but he’s already got feel for the change, and the arm slot tweak should help. I trust that the stuff will get there.

8. Dilson Herrera, 2b

7. Brandon Nimmo, OF

Potential league-average regulars that are further away than our three through five troika. Nimmo gets the nod, because Jason Parks has seen both and prefers Nimmo. This seems reasonable to me, especially given there is still some power projection left for Nimmo. I’d have more to say here if I had paid better attention to Herrera at the Futures Game, but I was distracted by Miguel Sano’s BP. I can say this about Herrera: Also not too bad for one month of Marlon Byrd.

6. Dominic Smith, 1b

I tend to be pretty conservative with recent draftees, but a positive report from Hudson Belinsky has assuaged some of my concerns, and there is more ceiling here than with the group behind him. Still, I would feel better about Smith if he were 6’2″.

5. Cesar Puello, OF

4. Wilmer Flores, 3b/2b/1b/??

3. Rafael Montero, RHP

3-5 is a clear tier. Three youngish, close-to-major-league-ready prospects without a huge ceiling. All would be 5s (league-average regulars) for me. You could make the case for Puello over Flores since Puello is at least a good rightfielder. You could make the case for either over Montero if you don’t trust his frame/stuff to hold up over a 180-inning, major league workload.

2. Travis d’Arnaud, C

1. Noah Syndergaard, RHP

The obvious top two. We do need to stop with the “Noah Syndergaard shouldn’t be traded for anyone because he’s a guaranteed ace” talk though. I see him as more a #2/#3 with potential for more, so he’s very much in the same place Zack Wheeler was coming into 2013, or if you prefer, Matt Harvey coming into 2012. d’Arnaud will be fine if he’s healthy, but I don’t see much more than an above-average backstop here, which I am happy to sign up for today. I’ll take the free six months of Entertainment Weekly too, why not?

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13 Responses to “The 2014 Mets Prospect List”

  1. ytedy November 5, 2013 at 2:14 PM #

    Do you not like Familia or do you consider him ineligible? I think based on innings he’s still prospect eligible. Similar question for Mateo, do you think the TJ surgery keeps him of the list by default or are you not very high on him?

    • Jeffrey Paternostro November 5, 2013 at 3:25 PM #

      Familia has too many days of service to count for my list, which is just rookie eligibility. He’d be somewhere 11-15 or so.

      I have never been a big Mateo guy. His stuff gets played up as plus-plus and it just wasn’t in 2012. Awful mechanics and inconsistent velocity/command on the fastball: The TJ hurts as he won’t throw another pitch until he is 24, and probably won’t be a major league factor until he is 25. He’s likely reliever-only now as well. He’s in the 30-35 group.

  2. Baseballfan November 6, 2013 at 11:26 AM #

    I think Luis Guillorme should be in that list. He really can play this game.

    • Jeffrey Paternostro November 7, 2013 at 10:32 PM #

      Guillorme was a nice little get in the tenth round, and I like him more than a couple guys selected ahead of him. But until he shows he can hit above the complex league, he basically projects to be Wilfredo Tovar, but further away. And even Tovar as an 18 year old spent time at two full-season levels.

  3. Dan Lemole November 6, 2013 at 1:52 PM #

    Why the emphasis on Dominic Smith’s height? don Mattingly and Steve Garvey were both under six feet and we’re outstanding first baseman.

    • Jeffrey Paternostro November 7, 2013 at 10:34 PM #

      See, the problem is you literally have to go back forty years to find a first baseman with Smith’s build. Toby and I were talking about this recently, and I fooled around with Play Index, and since 1980 the only 6′ first baseman that were real impact players were Garvey, Keith, and Bagwell (who had a very different build) There has been no first baseman to have a real career this century that was 6′ and less than 200 pounds. That’s not to say Smith won’t be an impact major leaguer, just that he would be a unique case if he did.

  4. Anonymous November 6, 2013 at 9:49 PM #

    No Gorski seriously?

    • Jeffrey Paternostro November 7, 2013 at 10:36 PM #

      Man, it pains me to give up on the #GORSKI, but stalker don’t lie. He was 83-85 on the gun when I saw him this summer. That won’t fly. Reportedly he ticked up a bit late in the year, but it’s still a far cry from the 88-91 he was sitting in 2012. He needs the velo separation to make the change work, since the breaking ball is still a non-entity.

  5. mets fan November 6, 2013 at 9:50 PM #

    No Gorski seriously?

  6. Chris November 9, 2013 at 7:46 PM #

    Where would you rank Robert Whalen in a top 100?

    • Jeffrey Paternostro November 9, 2013 at 8:34 PM #

      Man, I don’t even think I have 100 names on my spreadsheet. Whalen is there though. Less fastball than Flexen, less projection, better breaking ball. He’d be in the mix for the next ten, definitely top 50.

  7. Philip Kossoy December 9, 2013 at 1:14 AM #

    Philip Kossoy here…Nice accurate list. However, I am sceptical of Puello due to the Peds. We will find out this summer if he’s got it or if it was simply in the bottle.

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Tuesday Links: Prospect Lists, Familia, Plawecki’s Prospects, And Out of Options too Early | Mets Minor League Blog - November 5, 2013

    […] Prospects Jeff Paternostro has his Top 30 Mets Prospects up. It’s […]

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