Top 40 Summary and Some Thoughts on the New 40 Man Roster

18 Nov

So now that I have finished my 2012 Prospect List, I thought I would give some brief thoughts on the system as a whole. The system has definitely improved from last year. The 2011 draft was a successful one for the Mets, as they got two potential impact players in Nimmo and Fulmer, and added some interesting prep players in Evans, Budgell, Gsellman and Montgomery. I guess you can throw Tuschak in there as well, though he is really, really raw. Overall, I would say the system is average. It lacks a clear elite Top 50 prospect, though I would rate both Wheeler and Harvey in that 50ish range. Familia is a Top 100 guy for me, and while I wouldn’t put Nimmo in that range, some no doubt will. There is some decent depth in the C+ guys as well. Still, only 8 players rank as a B- or higher for me, which isn’t great.

Another issue is the system is also tilted very much towards the pitching side. Not that I will complain about having 5 power arms witha #3 ceiling or higher, but the organization lacks impact bats in the short or medium term. Nimmo could be that bat, but he is far away and far from a sure thing. The potential major league bats the Mets do have either have injury/performance issues (Puello, Flores, Havens) or are lower ceiling prospects (Nieuwenhuis, Lagares, Valdespin). The system is especially thin up the middle, and is basically barren at catcher and shortstop. They could also use a left-handed arm that is better than Darin Gorski, and I love Darin Gorski. Juan Urbina could be that guy, I suppose, but he is also a ways away.

Looking towards 2013 (a popular Mets fan activity right about now), the Mets are unlikely to graduate any of their top five. I expect, barring injury or regression, that we will see both Harvey and Familia at some point in 2012, even if it is just in September, but I don’t see either using up their rookie eligibility. This system will probably be even better next Fall, but it will take another season or two to build it up to even Yankee levels, let alone have it mentioned in the same breath with the truly elite farm systems.

—-

So the Mets announced their 40 man additions today. No big surprises, but I will go through them one by one.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis: An obvious pick. He probably would already be on it if he hadn’t gotten hurt. Absolutely would have been picked if he was left exposed. Could make the 2012 Mets out of Spring Training, but I am guessing he is the heir apparent in RF after the Mets give up on Bay (and move Duda to LF).

Juan Lagares: Kind of had to after his strong season/AFL performance. Don’t think we will see him this year, but this is the type of guy that gets drafted in the Rule 5, as he has enough speed/glove to stick as a 5th OF on a 2nd division team.

Wilmer Flores: Now, he’s clearly not ready for The Show, but again, he’s the type of high upside player that gets drafted in the Rule 5 by a team that can hide him for a year.

Cesar Puello: See Flores

Reese Havens: Again, no surprise. If healthy, he could stick on a major league roster, so the Mets had to protect him. Alderson likes him as well, mentioning him as an underrated Mets prospect when he spoke at BPro/SABR day.

Robert Carson: I said on twitter that I thought they would protect one of Carson/Holt/McHugh, and I am not particularly surprised it was Carson. Lefties that throw over 90 are aways useful, and Carson has a decent slider to boot. Bullpen arms are always in high demand in the Rule 5.

(Somehow I forgot Jeurys Familia when I posted this, but basically everything I wrote for Nieuwenhuis applies to Familia. He was a no brainer.)

Now the big names that were left exposed…

Collin McHugh: I personally would have protected him, but you have to keep in mind that he’s done this for exactly one season and he doesn’t have a clear plus offering that would make him a logical choice to be a bullpen arm right now. I don’t think he gets drafted, because pitchers like McHugh generally don’t get selected.

Brad Holt: I won’t be *shocked* if he gets selected in the Rule 5, but I think the control issues will scare people off. He’s not that young either.

Jefry Marte: I think the Mets are banking on a couple things here. (1) Marte has performed the worst of the high upside international guys, and doesn’t really have a position. (2) The AFL wrist injury will make him less desirable, since it is likely to sap some of his power in the short term. I don’t think he gets picked.

I am kind of surprised they didn’t move Satin, Baxter or Rodriguez off the 40-man, though those guys will be first on the chopping block as the Mets sign free agents. Until then, though, #HAILSATIN!

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