The 2012 New York Mets Top 40 Prospect List: 29-23

8 Nov

29. Danny Muno, SS

Grade: C

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 23.2

Predicted 2012 Assignment: Advanced A St. Lucie

Optimistic Projection: Reggie Willits’ good seasons

Pessimistic Projection: Josh Satin (#HAILMUNO)

Notes:  I personally like Muno a lot, but I am going to be a touch cautious here. The annals of prospectdom are littered with polished older college guys who destroyed the New York Penn League, but then were exposed in full season ball. That said, Muno’s approach is excellent and he shows good command of the strike zone and has some doubles power. Satin is actually a pretty good comp, both in approach and power projection, but Muno will likely be the better defender. He’s not a shortstop mind you, as the arm is fringy, but he profiles more as an infield utility guy anyway. Given his age, I would start him out at St. Lucie and see if he keeps hitting. Muno strikes me as one of those guys that will just keep outperforming his scouting report, but he does need to cut back on the Ks.

28. Camden Maron, C 

Grade: C

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 21.2

Predicted 2012 Assignment: Class A Savannah

Optimistic Projection: Josh Tholeish

Pessimistic Projection: Org guy

Notes:  I am also very bullish on Maron, though one should keep in mind that catchers, especially ones this far away from the majors, are incredibly difficult to project. Who even knows if he will be a catcher in three years, or will have the bat to handle full season ball? That said, he has put up three very fine seasons between the complex and Kingsport. He could very well put in a fourth year in the short season leagues, but I see no reason to keep him out of full season ball. The Sand Gnats will need a catcher, and none of the 2011 Cyclones backstops look like more than org filler. Savannah is a very challenging hitting environment, and the Mets have been very conservative with him, so I would hardly be shocked to see Maron on Coney Island next summer. Which in the end is fine by me, since that’ll give me the opportunity to get a few dozen looks at him.

 

27. Matt den Dekker, CF

Grade: C

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 24.7

Predicted 2012 Assignment: AA Binghamton

Optimistic Projection: 4th OF who has some pop and can pick it

Pessimistic Projection: 5th OF who struggles to hit .230

Notes:  This probably seems like a low ranking for den Dekker, but while I think he is the MOST likely of the guys in this grouping to have a MLB career, I am far from convinced he will be able to hit even .250 in the bigs. The glove is good enough to carry him somewhat, but he’s not Franklin Gutierrez or Carlos Gomez, so you would like to see him hit a little bit more than those guys. He has a max effort swing, so when he does make contact he has pretty decent pop for an up the middle bat, but he has struggled to make enough contact, posting a 29% strikeout rate at Binghamton. The total package looks like a future major leaguer, but the ceiling is pretty low at this point, and considering he turns 25 next year, I don’t see that ceiling getting much higher. Den Dekker will head back to Binghamton, but until he cuts that K rate down, it is hard to see him as more than a fringy prospect.

 

26.  Rafael Montero, RHP

Grade: C

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 21.5

Predicted 2012 Assignment: Short Season- A Brooklyn

Optimistic Projection: Back-end starter or late-inning reliever

Pessimistic Projection: AA flame-out

Notes: Sleeper alert! Montero kind of burst on the scene out of nowhere this year, dominating the Dominican Summer League as a 20 year old. Yawn. He did the same in the complex and short season leagues. Yawn again, right? But here’s the thing: he has an explosive arm. The fastball dials up into the mid-nineties and it is a remarkably easy velocity coming from his smallish frame. The breaking pitch needs some refinement, but certainly looks like it could be a good one. I probably have Montero higher than most, but I really think he’s only a tick or so behind the Kingsport 3 all in all. Now, he is less likely to stay a starter, just going off his build, but all four guys are far enough away that they are basically lottery tickets anyway. I’d let him work on his secondary stuff and stretch him out at Brooklyn before exposing him to full season ball in 2013. Man, that Cyclones pitching staff next year could be frighteningly good. Of course, they could also walk two hundred guys.

25. Greg Peavey, RHP

Grade: C

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 23.8

Predicted 2012 Assignment: Adv. A St. Lucie

Optimistic Projection: Back-end starter

Pessimistic Projection: AAAA reliever

Notes: The differences between Peavey, McHugh, Goeddel and Gorski are pretty slight all in all. All four get by with averagish velocity and good command of a mix of secondary stuff. Goeddel’s stuff is a bit better than the other three, but he comes with serious durability concerns. Peavey ranks lowest for me, because he struggled more in Advanced A ball than you would expect from a guy with his polish. Still, all four basically have the same ceiling and floor. I think Peavey will be fine in the medium and long term, though my gut says he ends up in the pen.

24. Jefry Marte, 3B

Grade: C

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 20.7

Predicted 2012 Assignment: Adv. A St. Lucie

Optimistic Projection: Average major league outfielder, something like Juan Rivera, maybe

Pessimistic Projection: Org guy

Notes: I am actually still pretty high on Marte all in all, but I can’t really justify putting him over any of the 23 guys in front of him. He didn’t hit after April and is unlikely to stay at third base. Since his likely destination is either left field or first base, he is going to need to hit a lot more than this. On the plus side, he’s done well in the AFL so far against much older competition, with the obvious caveats that (1) it’s a small sample; and (2) it’s the Arizona Fall League. Marte’s still young and toolsy, but sooner or later he’ll have to show he can scorch minor league pitching for more than 25 games. I like him enough that he is a sleeper for me going into 2012, but I’d start him back in the Florida State League again. He’s still young for the league, and like so many of the previous regime’s international signings, has been unnecessarily rushed.

23. Domingo Tapia, RHP

Grade: C

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 20.4

Predicted 2012 Assignment: Short Season A Brooklyn

Optimistic Projection: Hard throwing mid-rotation arm/late inning reliever

Pessimistic Projection: Org guy

Notes: This is purely based on scouting reports. I haven’t seen Tapia, and his numbers at Kingsport this year are hardly encouraging. I have him well below Urbina and Morris in part, because he is a year older than either of them, and Rany Jazayerli’s outstanding research has shown that a year gap at this level of development is much more significant than it might be three years from now. That said, I am a bit of a velocity whore, (tm Kevin Goldstein) and guys with Tapia’s fastball don’t grow on trees.

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One Response to “The 2012 New York Mets Top 40 Prospect List: 29-23”

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Mets - Baseball Prospectus - September 15, 2016

    […] mid-2013. It’s not easy to find a Montero scouting report from back in 2011, but luckily our own Jeffrey Paternostro saw him in Brooklyn and wrote about it as part of a Met prospect list on his blo…. Montero was throwing up into the mid-90s with a garbage breaking ball (at the time it was a curve) […]

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